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Submitted on September 15, 2004
From the Department of Preventive Medicine (D.M.L.-J.), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Ill; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute’s Framingham Heart Study (E.P.L., M.G.L., R.S.V., D.L.), National Institutes of Health, Framingham, Mass; the Division of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine (M.G.L., R.S.V., D.L.), Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, Mass; and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (D.L.), Bethesda, Md. * To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dlj{at}northwestern.edu.
Abstract--Hypertension confers risk for multiple types of cardiovascular events, but competing risks for these outcomes are unknown. We estimated the competing risks over 12 years after hypertension onset among cases and age-, sex-, and examination-matched controls using competing Cox cumulative incidence and proportional hazards models. We included all Framingham Heart Study subjects examined after 1977 with new-onset hypertension who were free of cardiovascular disease. There were 645 men and 702 women with new-onset hypertension (mean age: men, 55±12 years; women, 59±12 years). Compared with matched nonhypertensive controls, subjects with new-onset hypertension were more likely to experience a cardiovascular event first rather than noncardiovascular death. Among new-onset hypertensives, the 12-year competing cumulative incidence of any cardiovascular end point as a first event in men was 24.7%, compared with 9.8% for noncardiovascular death (hazards ratio [HR], 2.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.83 to 3.50); in women, the competing incidences were 16.0% versus 10.1%, respectively (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.20). The most common first major cardiovascular events were hard coronary disease (8.2%) in men and stroke (5.2%) in women. Type and incidence of first cardiovascular events varied by age and severity of hypertension at onset, with stroke predominating among older subjects with new-onset hypertension. After hypertension onset, cardiovascular events are more likely to occur first as opposed to noncardiovascular death. Types of initial events differ by gender, age, and severity of hypertension at onset. These results represent a novel approach to understanding the complications of hypertension and may help target therapies for patients with new-onset hypertension to optimize prevention strategies.
Revised on October 5, 2004
Novel Approach to Examining First Cardiovascular Events After Hypertension Onset
Donald M. Lloyd-Jones*;
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