Abstract 238: Genetic Risk Score as a Predictor of Incident Hypertension and Blood Pressure Change Over Time
Little data exist regarding single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) predicting blood pressure (BP) change over time. We genotyped 32 common SNPs in a nationwide cohort aged ≥30 years examined in years 2000 (n=5402) and 2011 (n=3373). We investigated whether genetic risk scores (GRSs) constructed of these variants would predict incident hypertension and BP change over time. We created GRSs for systolic and diastolic BP by multiplying the risk allele count of each SNP by the effect size estimated in published genome-wide association studies. In linear and logistic regression models adjusted for traditional risk factors, 1-unit increases in GRSs were associated with higher systolic and diastolic BP values both at baseline (β±SE, 1.04±0.14 mmHg and 1.11±0.13 mmHg; P<0.0001 for both) and at reinvestigation (β±SE, 0.86±0.18 mmHg and 0.74±0.16 mm Hg; P<0.0001 for both) and with increased hypertension prevalence (odds ratio [95% CI], 1.12 [1.08-1.16] and 1.18 [1.11-1.26]; P<0.0001 for both). Among all participants who were normotensive at baseline and participated in the re-examination (n=2045), the GRSs were not independently associated with BP change over time (β±SE, 0.016±0.18 mmHg and 0.019±0.18 mmHg; P≥0.27 for both). However, in the top tertile of the GRS, the predicted increase in BP compared with the bottom tertile was 1.59±0.78 mmHg greater for systolic BP (P=0.04) and 0.79±0.49 mmHg greater for diastolic BP (P=0.11) and the odds ratio for incident hypertension was 30% higher (P=0.04). Our data show that GRSs are strongly associated with BP and prevalence of hypertension, but only weakly associated with BP increase and incidence of hypertension in a general adult population.
Author Disclosures: T. Niiranen: None. J. Mäki: None. A.S. Havulinna: None. V. Salomaa: None. A. Jula: None.
- © 2014 by American Heart Association, Inc.