Predicting Out-of-Office Blood Pressure in the Clinic (PROOF-BP)
Derivation and Validation of a Tool to Improve the Accuracy of Blood Pressure Measurement in Clinical Practice
Patients often have lower (white coat effect) or higher (masked effect) ambulatory/home blood pressure readings compared with clinic measurements, resulting in misdiagnosis of hypertension. The present study assessed whether blood pressure and patient characteristics from a single clinic visit can accurately predict the difference between ambulatory/home and clinic blood pressure readings (the home–clinic difference). A linear regression model predicting the home–clinic blood pressure difference was derived in 2 data sets measuring automated clinic and ambulatory/home blood pressure (n=991) using candidate predictors identified from a literature review. The model was validated in 4 further data sets (n=1172) using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve analysis. A masked effect was associated with male sex, a positive clinic blood pressure change (difference between consecutive measurements during a single visit), and a diagnosis of hypertension. Increasing age, clinic blood pressure level, and pulse pressure were associated with a white coat effect. The model showed good calibration across data sets (Pearson correlation, 0.48–0.80) and performed well-predicting ambulatory hypertension (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.72–0.79 [systolic]; 0.87; 0.85–0.89 [diastolic]). Used as a triaging tool for ambulatory monitoring, the model improved classification of a patient’s blood pressure status compared with other guideline recommended approaches (93% [92% to 95%] classified correctly; United States, 73% [70% to 75%]; Canada, 74% [71% to 77%]; United Kingdom, 78% [76% to 81%]). This study demonstrates that patient characteristics from a single clinic visit can accurately predict a patient’s ambulatory blood pressure. Usage of this prediction tool for triaging of ambulatory monitoring could result in more accurate diagnosis of hypertension and hence more appropriate treatment.
- Received January 29, 2016.
- Revision received February 1, 2016.
- Accepted February 3, 2016.
- © 2016 The Authors.
Hypertension is published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wolters Kluwer. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.